Rising oil-gas reserves and their unstable prices
* BusinessWorld May 3, 2023. -------------- The persistent lobby for energy transition from fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal) to renewables (wind, solar, etc.) and moving to “net zero” carbon dioxide emissions is anchored on the assumptions (among others) that fossil fuels are non-renewable and will soon be depleted, and that this will cause large-scale global economic turmoil if the alternative renewables are not ready in high volumes. Are these assumptions correct and realistic? If yes, fine. If no, then all the economic and energy policies leading to net zero are also wrong and distortionary. To help answer this question, I put together this table and limited the annual data for proven oil and natural gas reserves to 1980, 2000, and 2020. Reserves/Production (R/P) measures how many years the reserves will last if current production by a country (both for domestic use and exports) is constant. So, an oil R/P ratio in 2020 of 27 for Brunei means it will take 27 years before its...