Energy Columns in BusinessWorld

Nuclear energy and the UPSE RPA-PDEAA lecture January 18, 2024 | 12:02 am My Cup Of Liberty By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2024/01/18/569525/nuclear-energy-and-the-upse-rpa-pdeaa-lecture/ Among the important developments in global energy recently was not the “surging” prices of oil, natural gas, or coal, as there was none. From end-December 2022 to Jan. 16, 2024, these were the prices of oil, gas, and coal: WTI crude oil, $77/barrel to $72/barrel; US natural gas, $3.54/metric million British thermal unit (MMBtu) to $2.82/MMBtu; Coal (Newcastle) $390/ton to $129/ton. Meanwhile, the solar energy index was $331 to $233, the wind energy index was $299 to $276, and the EU carbon permits were $90/ton to $68/ton. In contrast, over the same period the price of uranium went from $48.84/pound (lb) to $92.5/lb, and the nuclear energy index rose from $1,462 to $2,148. Almost double in price in less than 13 months. So, fossil fuel prices are down — good. Financial

Top 10 proposals to have blackout-free Philippines January 9, 2024 | 12:02 am My Cup Of Liberty By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2024/01/09/567487/top-10-proposals-to-have-blackout-free-philippines/ The new year started badly in Panay Island — which is subdivided into four provinces (Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, and Antique) with an estimated population in 2023 of 5.5 million people — when on Jan. 2 there was a huge power blackout which lasted many hours. Then it affected the island-province of Guimaras and the rest of the Visayas grid. See these reports about it last week in  BusinessWorld : “Panay power plant outages raise yellow alert in Visayas” (Jan. 2), “‘Improved planning’ needed after Panay outages — NGCP” (Jan. 3), “ERC: Committee looking into Panay Island power outage” (Jan. 4), and, “DoE plan must elevate energy security to top priority item, think tank says” (Jan. 7). This piece will briefly discuss 10 proposals to avoid a similar event and the annu

Top 10 energy and climate stories of 2023 January 2, 2024 | 12:02 am My Cup Of Liberty By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2024/01/02/566160/top-10-energy-and-climate-stories-of-2023/ Happy New Year, dear readers. Here’s a lookback of important developments in the global energy industry. In the table below, I grouped the countries into three — group for Asia, group B for the Americas plus South Africa and group C for Europe. First, “decarbonization” and coal phasedown continued in Europe and developed economies in North America and Asia, while developing Asia added more coal capacity and consumption. Global coal consumption from 2002-2022 expanded by 55%. Second, “denuclearization” of the power system also continued in Europe. Germany shut down all its remaining nuclear power plants in April; France had targeted to cut its nuclear power share to 50% from 75% of the total by 2035, but was forced to abandon the goal; Spain announced a nuclear phaseout by 2035

Top 10 news stories on power and electricity of 2023 December 19, 2023 | 12:02 am My Cup Of Liberty By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/12/19/564256/top-10-news-stories-on-power-and-electricity-of-2023/ For this column, here are the top 10 power and electricity news stories of 2023. 1. Philippine power generation is back to a yearly increase of five terawatt-hours (TWH) after a big decline during the 2020 lockdown dictatorship. In 2022, generation reached 111.5 TWH or 111,500 gigawatt-hours (GWH), according to the power statistics released by the Department of Energy (DoE) in mid-2023. This is almost double the 60.8 TWH in 2008 when the Renewable Energy (RE) Act or RA 9513 was enacted. According to the 2023 data from the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP), the Luzon and Visayas grids have produced 75.4 TWH for April-November alone. 2. Of the 111.5 TWH generated in 2022, 60% of it came from coal plants, 16% from (Malampay

Energizing growth via fossil fuels, nuclear power, and unsubsidized electricity prices December 7, 2023 | 12:02 am My Cup Of Liberty By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/12/07/561974/energizing-growth-via-fossil-fuels-nuclear-power-and-unsubsidized-electricity-prices/ (Part 6 of a series) There are two good things about the ongoing Conference of the Parties 28 (COP28) meeting with governments, multilaterals, corporations and other players in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE): one, the host country is a big oil-gas producer and exporter and hence, will never agree to a phase-out of fossil fuels; and, two, the growing pivot to nuclear energy as the attractiveness of wind-solar as “decarbonization” alternatives is waning. The bad thing, of course, is that the estimated 70,000 participants in the COP 28 meetings are using lots of fossil fuels while they demonize fossil fuels. There is continuing double talk and hypocrisy in the annual UN climate meetings. T

On Meralco PSA bidding and nuclear power development November 28, 2023 | 12:02 am My Cup Of Liberty By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/11/28/560035/on-meralco-psa-bidding-and-nuclear-power-development/ We have four related energy topics here, and we go straight to them. 1. Proposed delay in Meralco 1,800 MW PSA bidding, “overcharging” allegation About two weeks ago, Sta. Rosa Rep. Dan S. Fernandez hurled an allegation about Meralco’s “overcharging” and attacked its recent bidding for a power supply agreement (PSA). There was also a House of Representatives committee on legislative franchise hearing on these issues on Nov. 22. As background, see these recent reports in  BusinessWorld  by Sheldeen Joy Talavera: “Meralco seeking speedy resolution of issues over ‘very crucial’ 1,800-megawatt capacity” (Oct. 17); “Meralco seeks bidders for 1,800-MW power supply” (Nov. 3); “Meralco forecasts 4.7% growth in energy sales volume by year-end” (Nov. 14); “Meralc

Energizing growth via grid ‘demonopolization’ and ‘declimatism’ policies November 16, 2023 | 12:02 am My Cup Of Liberty By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/11/16/557781/energizing-growth-via-grid-demonopolization-and-declimatism-policies/ (Part 5 of a series) As discussed in this column last Tuesday, the Philippines was the fastest-growing among the top 40 largest economies in the world in Q1-Q3 of 2023. We need to sustain this growth as economies that heavily pivoted to decarbonization and “climatism” (the belief that human use of fossil fuels destroys the Earth’s climate) are either crawling (below 1% growth) or contracting, especially the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Germany, and Sweden. This piece will cover two energy topics: pricing and revenues of the only remaining private monopoly nationwide, the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP), and the endless push for more intermittent wind and solar power due to the “climatism” lobby. ERC RE

Energizing growth via less intermittent wind, solar November 7, 2023 | 12:02 am My Cup Of Liberty By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/11/07/555911/energizing-growth-via-less-intermittent-wind-solar/ (Part 4 of a series) As usual, we go straight to the numbers to quickly show the data behind this column’s argument. We computed the capacity factor, the ratio or percent of actual electricity generated by a given installed capacity in a given year. It is measured as total electricity produced in terawatt-hours (TWH) divided by the amount of energy produced if the plant was running at full capacity. In mathematical form: Capacity factor (in %) = Generation in TWH / {installed capacity in megawatt (MW) x 24 hours/day x 365 days/year}. The higher the capacity factor, say above 60%, the more reliable and stable the energy source is, the less land or water surface will be needed to generate a TWH or 1 million megawatt-hours (MWH) of electricity. The computed av

The legal case of the late Doc Iggy October 31, 2023 | 12:02 am My Cup Of Liberty By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/10/31/554570/the-legal-case-of-the-late-doc-iggy/ .... MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT The renewed Middle East conflict, particularly the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, Palestine, is largely caused by two factors: the existence of non-Muslim Israel in the Middle East which many Palestinians and Iran do not recognize, and the endless war for oil by the US and many NATO countries. I construct this table below showing oil production in thousand barrels per day (bpd), oil reserves, oil reserves/production (R/P) ratio or the number of years before the reserves will be depleted assuming current production (for domestic use and exports) continues. Then gas production in billion cubic meters (cu.m.) and gas R/P ratio. In terms of oil reserves, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Yemen, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are the largest in the Middle E

Coal and nuclear power as growth drivers October 26, 2023 | 12:02 am My Cup Of Liberty By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/10/26/553602/coal-and-nuclear-power-as-growth-drivers/ (Part 3 of a series) We go straight to the numbers. I construct this table showing the changes in consumption per capita of coal and nuclear power of various countries over two decades, and 2002 and 2022. Data sources are: 1.) Annual data in terawatt-hours (TWH) coal and nuclear consumption from Energy Institute, Statistical Review of World Energy (EI-SRWE) 2023, and, 2.) Population and annual GDP growth from IMF World Economic Outlook (IMF-WEO) 2023. Then I computed the per capita consumption and average GDP growth. The numbers and trend show that, 1.) decarbonizing, de-coal, de-nuclear power countries have experienced a significant slowdown in GDP growth bordering on degrowth, 2.) carbonizing, high coal and high nuke power consuming countries experienced flat or increased eco

Energizing growth: Lessons from UAE, France, and other countries October 17, 2023 | 12:02 am My Cup Of Liberty By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/10/17/551802/energizing-growth-lessons-from-uae-france-and-other-countries/ (Part 2 of a series) DUBAI, UAE — This is my first time setting foot in the Middle East. I am going to Nice, France for the Tholos Forum 2023. My sponsor booked me at Emirates Air so the route is Manila-Dubai-Nice and back. From several videos and photos I had seen, Dubai is very bright at night, very developed and rich. I see this at the airport. Our plane landed at 4:30 a.m. and there are bright lights all around. The United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) power generation in 1985 was only 12.2 terawatt-hours (TWH) while Philippines’ was 22.8 TWH. By 2005, the UAE overtook the Philippines with 60.7 TWH while ours was 56.6 TWH. The UAE, along with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Middle East countries, optimized their oil and gas reserves and ke

Energizing growth: The role of fossil fuels in economic development October 3, 2023 | 12:02 am My Cup Of Liberty By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/10/03/549203/energizing-growth-the-role-of-fossil-fuels-in-economic-development/ (Part 1 of a series) This writer has come up with a new series on “Energizing growth,” looking at the role of energy policies in helping sustain or curtail economic growth of countries. I constructed the accompanying table showing the primary energy consumption (PEC) in exajoules (EJ) of many countries, and the average growth rates of their PEC and gross domestic product (GDP) from 1979 to 2022 or over 43 years. I chose 1979 as the base year because that is within the 1960s and ’70s which was the period with the highest PEC for many European countries. PEC covers not only power or electricity generation but also fuel for transportation (land, sea, and air). So, the bulk of PEC by countries are from fossil fuels, with a clear e

Power generation mix and fiscal irresponsibility September 21, 2023 | 12:02 am My Cup Of Liberty By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/09/21/546837/power-generation-mix-and-fiscal-irresponsibility/ Last week the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) released the market operations highlights for the August 2023 Wholesale electricity spot market (WESM) results. The power supply in the Luzon grid was rising while demand was falling that month, leading to high reserve margins and hence, lower prices — only P4.12/kWh for the September billing from an average of P5.54/kWh in June and July. Good. POWER GENERATION MIX The generation mix shows the continued important role of coal power to avoid blackouts nationwide. The average coal use for June to August was about 61% of total power generation, while the favored intermittent solar and wind combined contributed only about 2.8% of total generation (see Table 1). Among the recent develo

Energy realism: Why we need more coal, gas and nuclear power plants September 14, 2023 | 12:02 am My Cup Of Liberty By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/09/14/545313/energy-realism-why-we-need-more-coal-gas-and-nuclear-power-plants/ (Part 5) I attended Day 1 of the Giga Summit 2023 organized by the Meralco Power Academy, which was held from Sept. 11 to 13. I was particularly interested in the viability of nuclear power generation in the Philippines and there were three good speakers that afternoon. They were Ike Dimayuga of Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. talked about small modular reactors (SMR), Roland Backhaus of Ultra Safe Nuclear in the US talked about micro modular reactors (MMR), and representative Mark Cojuangco of Pangasinan’s 2nd District and author of HB 6030, “An Act Providing for a Comprehensive Nuclear Regulatory Framework, Creating for the Purpose the Philippine Atomic Energy Regulatory Authority, and Appropriating Funds Therefor.” Among the

Economic basis of net zero is zero September 5, 2023 | 12:02 am My Cup Of Liberty By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/09/05/543391/economic-basis-of-net-zero-is-zero/ We go straight to the numbers. I constructed two tables that accompany this piece. The first shows that in Group A countries that have fast “decarbonization” and are weaning themselves away from coal consumption measured in terajoules (TJ) per person from 2002 to 2022 or over two decades, their overall electricity generation either flatlines or declines. Then their GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP) values over two decades have expanded by two times at most. Group B countries are Europeans that have high coal consumption plus South Africa. Their coal use per capita has either declined or increased a bit, their overall electricity generation increased (except South Africa) and their per capita GDP has doubled or tripled. The Group C countries are in Asia. They all have expande