Energy Columns in BusinessWorld

* BusinessWorld  May 30, 2022. ------------------ During the  BusinessWorld  Virtual Economic Forum (BWVEF2022) last week (May 25-26), net-zero, decarbonization, and more renewable energy (RE) were discussed on Day 1. These concepts and aspirations are related to the new fad in finance — the environmental and social governance (ESG) scheme where more investments in RE and under-investments in fossil fuels are promoted. ESG AND ITS IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE COMMODITIES Among the ESG-related points made by some speakers at the BWVEF2022 were: 1.) Offshore wind power as part of climate solution, made by Torbjørn Kirkeby-Garstad of Scatec, 2.) more incentives for green buildings and net-zero, made by Raymond Rufino of NEO, and, 3.) small businesses have to be enabled to pursue net zero, made by Maria Yolanda Crisanto of Globe Telecom. See also some recent articles on ESG in  BusinessWorld : 1. “Accounting considerations for the oil and gas sector as renewable energy adoption...

* BusinessWorld  May 16, 2022. --------- This article will cover four different topics so we go straight to them. GDP GROWTH IN FIRST QUARTER 2022 Last week the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released the country’s economic performance in the first quarter (Q1) of the year. Growth was 8.3% compared to the level a year ago — nice. But in terms of pesos worth of goods and services produced, there was little to celebrate actually if we compare Q1 2022 vs Q1 2019 or three years ago. One, the P4.62 trillion output in Q1 2022 was only P160 billion higher than the P4.46 trillion output three years ago while there was an increase of 4.5 million more Filipinos over the same period. So the per capita income has continued to decline. Two, the increase was due to more government consumption and spending — a difference of P150 billion — plus household consumption which increased by P168 billion, mainly due to higher spending by politicians and sponsors in this year’s presidential electio...

* BusinessWorld  May 2, 2022. ----------- The Presidential and local elections next week generate not only political heat and drama but also climate and energy drama from some sectors that are warning of “power outages during elections amid coal plant shutdowns.” Blackouts during elections because of coal-plant shutdowns — this is nice scare mongering to attract public attention. This is part of the overall plan to endlessly demonize coal power plants (which contributed 57% of total power generation in the Philippines in 2020) so that the agenda of pushing intermittent renewables plus gas will be hastened. Last Friday, April 29, I attended the media briefing of the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) and among the topics discussed was the power supply-demand projection for the second and third quarters of 2022, more specifically on election week. IEMOP noted that during election day in 2019, peak power supply in the Luzon grid was 10,706 MW and peak d...

* BusinessWorld  April 18, 2022. ------------ There are some eyebrow-raising developments in the global and domestic energy situation captured by these recent reports in BusinessWorld: 1.) “Transition to renewables seen accelerating in response to high price of imported fuel” (March 29) 2.) “Fitch Solutions bullish on PHL power industry decarbonization” (April 7) 3.) “Think tank says hidden costs erode appeal of cheap coal power” (April 10) 4.) “ACEN to refinance unit’s loan, reinvest in renewables” (April 12) 5.) “Power rates up in April as generation charge rises” (April 12) 6.) “Battery storage seen as critical for RE adoption” (April 13). I say “eyebrow-raising” because the expected rise in fuel and electricity prices due to the Ukraine war and stiff economic sanctions against Russia are used to further demonize fossil fuels and coal power in particular and invite blackout economics to come back in the Philippines and other countries. For instance, report Nos. 1, 2, and 6 are a...

* BusinessWorld  March 28, 2022. -----------  US President Joe Biden has already been in the White House for 14 months, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US-led economic sanctions against it have just marked one month, and things are worsening. Here are 10 emerging trends, global and national. BIDEN’S EFFECT ON FOSSIL FUEL PRICES AND SUPPLY One: Biden and the US Democrat Party campaigned, among other issues, for a war on fossil fuels. And on Day 1 of his administration, Jan. 20, 2021, he announced a halt to oil-gas drilling in federal lands, and the killing of the Keystone XL pipeline that would bring some 800,000 barrels per day of Canada crude oil to the US. See these reports: 1. “In intimate moment, Biden vows to ‘end fossil fuel’,” AP News, Sept. 7, 2019 (“I guarantee you. We’re going to end fossil fuel.”) 2. “Keystone XL pipeline halted as Biden revokes permit,” AP News, Jan. 21, 2021 3. “Biden administration pauses federal drilling program in climate push,” Reuter...

* BusinessWorld  March 7, 2022. ------------- The law of unintended consequences in the US-Russia economic war While the shooting war is limited to Russia and Ukraine, the US-led economic war against Russia is unlimited in its impact on the global economy, especially in energy products, crops, and mining products. Take the TTF/EU gas. It was only €15.9 per megawatt-hour (MWH) on March 4, 2021, it went up to €204/MWH on March 4, 2022, for a year-on-year (YoY) 1,152% increase. The same for UK gas — only £39.8/MWH in March 4, 2021, it went up to £486/MWH a year later for a YoY 1,100% increase. This is mainly because many European countries — especially Germany, Italy, Finland, Poland, Netherlands, Moldova, etc. — are highly dependent on Russian gas. The UK is not too dependent on Russia gas but since many Europeans shifted to buy more gas from Qatar, Norway, Algeria, US LNG, etc., the prices of these countries’ products also rose. So, while the target of economic and financial sanctio...

* My article in  BusinessWorld  last February 28. ----------- Energy and economic impact of Russia-Ukraine war Even before Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, coal and gas prices were already high in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2019. Oil prices were lower in 2020 but increased in 2021. The main reason is high demand for these fossil fuel products compared to supply, despite continuing global narratives of “decarbonization” and “net zero.” HIGH PRICES FOR FOSSIL FUELS, CONTRACTION FOR WIND-SOLAR Peak prices of fossil fuel products in 2021 compared to end-2020 levels were 235% higher for coal (Newscastle, Australia), 700% for UK gas, and 840% for TTF/EU gas. Huge. And this was before the Russia invasion. When Russian fighter planes and tanks entered Ukraine, oil prices quickly touched the $100/barrel mark, EU gas prices were up to 50% than their previous day level. But prices retreated many hours later because gas flows from Russia pipelines continued unhampered as if there was no ...