Energy Columns in BusinessWorld

*  BusinessWorld  February 6, 2023.  ----------- Some developments on the energy front in early 2023, both global and national. 1. Oil and gas prices are now lower than during pre-war Ukraine. Comparing prices last week with Feb. 23, 2022 or a day before Russia invaded Ukraine, Dubai crude is $11/barrel cheaper and WTI crude is $17 cheaper. It’s the same trend for EU gas and US natural gas prices. 2. Coal prices have significantly cooled down. From a peak of $458/ton in 2022, it was down to only $245 last week. Since about 58% of total power generation in the Philippines is from coal, this is good news. 3. E-vehicle prices are rising and charging them is more expensive than using gasoline. The price of lithium, the main material in producing batteries, is higher than the pre-invasion period, twice the peak price in 2021 and six times the peak price in 2019. Electricity prices in Europe last week were about twice the peak prices in 2019. Peak prices in 2022 were 6-20 times...

* My article in  BusinessWorld  last January 9. ---------------- Continuing this column’s “Top 10” economic series, this 4th installment will cover energy projections for 2023, five global and five national predictions. 1. World oil demand will reach 102 million barrels per day (mbpd). Data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) show that world oil demand was 100.18 mbpd in 2019, 91.16 mbpd in 2020, and 97.01 mbpd in 2021. OPEC projects 99.56 mbpd in 2022, and 101.77 mbpd in 2023. Big demand will come from the US and China, with a combined 36 mbpd next year. 2. World oil supply will likely reach 102 mbpd too. The liquids supply — crude, non-gas liquids or NGLs, other non-conventional liquids — from non-OPEC countries, which include the USA, Russia, and Canada, will reach 67.1 mbpd. OPEC crude and other liquids will likely reach 35.5 mbpd, so this column predicts a world supply of 102.6 mbpd this year. All oil-producing countries except Russia are exp...

* My article in  BusinessWorld  last Dec. 19. ------------- Here is my list of big energy stories and some of my ideas of 2022, five of which are global and five national. 1. Big jump in energy prices due to economic sanctions vs. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Germany, the UK, France, Italy, etc. are not parties to the Russia-Ukraine war, they have no territorial dispute with Russia unlike Ukraine whose Crimea and Donbas regions are being claimed by both countries. But these European countries opted to cut their importation of cheap gas, oil, and coal from Russia and bought them elsewhere where prices are high, and transportation takes longer and is more costly. The European Union/Title Transfer Facility (EU/TTF) gas jumped from below €20/megawatt-hour (MWh) in 2019-2020 to nearly €340/MWh as the peak price this year. France, which had an average price of about €50/MWh in 2019-2020, experienced a spike to €1,130/MWh this year (See Table 1). The economic sanctions have penalize...

This column continues to monitor many economic issues and developments. There are 10 topics tackled here.... 6. A projected power rate hike Consider these recent reports in  BusinessWorld  related to the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) ruling against the two San Miguel Corp. (SMC) power companies’ petition for a generation rate hike: “SMC Global Power appeals rate hike denial — ERC” (Nov. 25); “SMC Global Power points to ERC for looming rate hike” (Nov. 29); “SMC Global Power offers Ilijan capacity to Meralco” (Dec. 4); “Meralco gets CSP exemption for power supply deal” (Dec. 7); “Higher power rates seen on ceased 670-MW supply” (Dec. 8); “Malampaya consortium denies SMC Global Power’s claim on banked gas delivery” (Dec. 12); and, “Meralco hopes to secure power deal within the week” (Dec. 12). SMC Global Power and its allies in media continue to demonize the ERC and the agency’s chairperson, Monalisa Dimalanta. There seems to be no acknowledgment by SMC that they made a big...

* BusinessWorld  Nov. 28, 2022. -------------- .... PROJECTIONS MEDIUM- TO LONG-TERM There is a trend that high and rising consumption of fossil fuels (FF) — oil, natural gas, and coal — leads to high and sustained growth. And declining consumption of FF leads to low and declining growth. In two tables accompanying this piece, I chose the biggest economies and arranged them in group A for North and South America, group B for Europe, group C for Northeast and South Asia, and group D for the ASEAN-6. Energy consumption is expressed in Petajoules (PJ). One PJ is equivalent to 23,885 tons of oil equivalent, or equivalent to 277.78 megawatt-hours (MWH) of electricity. The G7 countries — the US, Canada, Germany, the UK, France, Italy, and Japan — have had high FF consumption historically, which partly explains their high GDP per capita. Russia and Asian countries like South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, also have high FF consumption both in total and PJ per million population (Tables 2 a...

* BusinessWorld  Nov. 21, 2022. ---------- .... ATTACKS AGAINST DOE AND ERC LEADERSHIP Last week, the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) reported a piece of good news — high power margin (supply less demand) of 3,500+ megawatts (MW) and lower prices at the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) for the November 2022 billing period. I summarize in Table 2 the prices from January to November billing, and added the percent contribution of coal and intermittent sources. Coal is frequently demonized but is largely responsible for why those who want it phased out still have electricity 24/7. The beloved wind-solar have combined generation of near-insignificant levels. Recently, there have been attacks against Energy Secretary Raphael Lotilla and Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) Chair Monalisa Dimalanta which say that they are not objective and neutral because they have worked with one of the major gencos in the country. While this might be a factor, Lo...

* BusinessWorld  November 14, 2022. -------------------- There are three topics this week and we go straight to them.... POWER SUBSIDIES, TRANSMISSION AND GENERATION I want to comment on these four recent reports in  BusinessWorld . 1. “ERC determining extent of subsidies for marginalized power consumers” (Nov. 7) 2. “NGCP fined P5.1 million over failure to maintain adequate reserve power” (Nov. 8) 3. “Grid operator to appeal P5.1-million ERC fine” (Nov. 10) 4. “Meralco raises electricity rates for November” (Nov. 10) Report number one is about Republic Act (RA) 11552 extending the lifeline rate, or subsidies for low usage consumers, from 20 to 50 years. There are two problems with endless subsidies like this law. One, not all low-usage consumers are poor — they may be rich people who have vacation houses somewhere and just occasionally use these and hence, consumption is low. And, two, other consumers will be forced to pay for that subsidy and this will distort household savi...